Epidemics in a Nutshell, Part 2

Part 1 here.

Michael Fumento returns. I don’t really need to say anything, because Mr Fumento pretty much says it all. In fact, the headline does: Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think.

But let’s not forget Farr’s Law:

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in ­every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Update (20200619): Well, that took some time, almost 4 months, but finally, in a comment from Shot In the Dark blog:

[...] Most epidemics follow Farr’s Law meaning the infection curve is roughly symmetrical. And most viral infections burn themselves out in 70-100 days.

There’s anecdotal evidence the virus hit the US in December so by April 1, when most of the lock-down orders took effect, we were already at the peak or on the down side of the infection curve.

The epidemic was basically over before we noticed it. Everything government did in response was locking the barn door after the horse was gone. Everything government continues to do is political theater: doing something for the sake of being seen to do something, to protect their phony-baloney jobs.

The context in which this was written is also interesting.

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