Time to Step Up, Guys

Scott Adams of Dilbert fame comments about Democrat electoral cheating:

Why do Republicans think Democrats can out-cheat them with mail-in ballots? That’s a losing mindset. I have confidence that the GOP can out-harvest the Democrats in swing states and compensate for all the media bias that way.

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Twitter and Trump: A Marriage Made In Therapy

I coulda written this. Great post.

Long before I thought he might be elected president back in 2016, I kept saying that political science students would one day be studying Donald Trump’s use of Twitter during the campaign.

After he was elected, I was one of the very few Republicans who didn’t preface every good thing I’d say about him with some weak-sauce, “Well, I wish he didn’t tweet so much.” Quite the opposite, in fact. I was already a huge fan of his Twitter habits. I wrote on more than one occasion that he would teach every elected Republican to tweet properly.

What Trump has managed to do with Twitter is counter the narrative advantage that the mainstream media always had and used against Republican presidents. He doesn’t have to rely on press releases or press conferences to get his side of any story out to the public, he just wakes up and starts tweeting.

For those of us who were sick of watching the MSM run roughshod over Republican presidents, Trump’s Twitter rants were a thing of absolute beauty.

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Remodernism

I just love this kind of thing. This Plague Psychodrama is Peak Postmodernism. Its Retreat Will Lead to Remodern Renewal. Very cool.

A virus is ravaging the world. I don’t mean the one hyped in every headline, referred to by whichever accountability-dodging misnomer we’re supposed to call it this week. That affliction is the ultimate in Chinese take out-as in take out global stability and prosperity.

This other virus is one that sickens the soul. It’s been a raging pandemic for at least 50 years. The institutions we once relied on for societal preservation and advancement were converted into hosts for this ailment long ago, and spread its maladies amongst us all. It also was created by Communists. The disease is Postmodernism, and the current assaults on civilization being done in the name of safety has exposed the festering disorder that is the Postmodern ethos.

I linked to this post from this one for this comment quote:

The establishment status quo had been under assault like never before. I will even go so far to say they were losing. Populist uprisings around the world were gaining traction. We were questioning why such incompetent, selfish hypocrites were in charge, demanding respect they never earned, producing terrible results over and over again.

The Postmodern elites had no valid answer. It was all starting to slip away from them. So they went kamikaze. They determined it was better for them to crash civilization rather than lose the power and prestige they’d seized in the corrupt Postmodern hierarchy. They took advantage of a virus which was potentially a little more dangerous than the usual flu (unleashed on purpose or on accident, who can say?), and created the mother of all false flag operations, the Woo Hoo Floo Hysteria.

There’s more. Lots more. And it concludes on an optimistic note that points to something called Remodernism.

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Better to Reign in Hell, Than Serve in Heaven

This is a fine comment which will lead into another (see link below). I’m not OCD enough to create a link to each of the items below, but they’re all true and/or evident. Well-stated.

Knit masks. Politicians breaking lock-down for personal jaunts. Reporters who wear masks on-camera only. Computer models that fail to match the past and can’t even explain the present, much less predict the future. Rules that incorporate numbers plucked out of the air – 6 feet, 25%, one tank – and categories chosen without explanation – religion is not essential, but candy is – and spending bills that include every Liberal wish-list item despite having no relation to the virus: all these and more are mounting daily evidence that President Trump was correct.

The existence of the virus is not a hoax. The Democrats’ panic over the virus is the hoax. It’s not a real panic, it’s a hoax intended to divert attention from the failed impeachment, from the success of the Trump economy, from the impending landslide election. They think that if they can make voters’ lives bad enough, they can blame Trump for it and convince voters into voting Democrat this fall. They are literally destroying the country to save it from four more years of Trump.

In Paradise Lost, Satan explains why he and the other Fallen Angels rebelled against God:

“Here we may reign secure, and in my choice
To reign is worth ambition though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell, than serve in Heaven.”

350 years after Milton, Democrats are re-enacting it here in America.

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If We Can Save Just One Life

According to this link, some 650,000 were killed by heart disease in 2017. Assuming that number is more or less constant year over year (or a constant percentage of the population), it is somewhere between 7 and 10 times the death rate for Kung flu.

This image came from Ace (click on image to go to original post):

And the question is then, given the magnitude of deaths from heart disease versus that of the Kung flu, why wouldn’t this be possible?

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What Comes After Democracy?

Lars Hedegaard has written an interesting piece at Snaphanen that I think is worth translating: Hvad kommer efter demokratiet? As usual, the original is below the fold.

A couple of comments as prologue. the Prime Minister of Denmark is a woman named Mette Frederiksen. Her response to the Kung-flu in Denmark is apparently similar to that of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.

The Frederiksen State has arrived.

A friend recently asked, “Do you think democracy will survive?”

“No”, I answered, “It will be seen as an episode in the history of man. In the context of Denmark, democracy lasted from 1849 to sometime in the 1970s and is now under a final dismantling.”

If anyone should doubt this description, they would be wise to note the reaction of Danes to the restrictions and limitations on their freedom of movement that were decreed by an all-powerful Prime Minister in conjunction with the corona-crisis. Obediently and submissively, all have yielded to the wisdom claimed by a narrow power-elite. For many weeks, the nation’s mother, Mette Frederiksen, has daily told us how to behave and for many weeks, no one has questioned this new political system that has been in fact been introduced.

No changes have been made to the Constitution, the Frederiksen State simply came into being.

As the state of emergency has now been proven and clearly accepted by the general population, we must assume that the temptation will be great to declare it in other situations.

Who would dare oppose totalitarian actions when the Earth is at risk in a few decades

The most obvious is the claimed “Climate Crisis” that the political elite and its media have promoted for many years now. A handful of observers have their doubts about the CO2-talk but they are not heard, and the scientific data on which they build their arguments is censured in the official, state-supported media. They have almost no advocates in the Folketing [parliament].

The government has already begun by regulating in detail the activities of Danes with regards to preventing the certain death that politicians and their experts predict. And who would dare to oppose totalitarian encroachments of personal freedom when day in and day out all are told that the Earth will be destroyed in a few decades if they don’t obey.

We must also assume that strong actions will be taken against the “Islam critics”, ie, people that can’t or won’t accept the wonders of a population replacement and the surrender of an increasing number of areas that have been declared to be “sharia zones”. It is assumed that portions of the population will, at some time, rebel, which will require that the powers of the state be used against them.

These are only examples. There is a wealth of material about dictatorships, and the state’s desire for power is unlimited. There are few examples in which the powerful have freely given up the power to which they have accrued.

Officially, there will still be a democracy, free elections, freedom of speech and a system of justice, and the Constitution will not be changed. But these will all hide a reality that has little to do with democracy or freedom.

The sustainable diversity democracy

It is probable that the name will be modified. Instead of “democracy”, a better system will be introduced which could be called a “climate democracy”, a “sustainable democracy”, a “diversity democracy” or something similar. No one would dare protest against it because it would mean a rejection of society and with that the status of pariah. We can see it already when people are publicly shamed for their “tone” in public debates, their xenophobia, their racism, their climate change denial, and other awful things.

For politicians, this is an ideal situation. They have already given up most of their authority and thus responsibility to the EU, and if they get rid of the rest to a “higher wisdom” that is hidden by the “deep state”, they can sleep soundly and contentedly look forward to a good salary and pension.

Democracy is classically understood to require an attentive and well-informed population and when people relax and take direction from “science”, “the law”, “international obligations”, et al, everything is lost.

We are on that path.

Continue reading

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Blinded By Science

Governor Wally (MN-DFL) continues his efforts to run the state as if he were Governor William J. Le Petomane:

Churches can only have 10 people or less outdoors while bars and restaurants can have up to 50. No, I don’t know why either.

Governor Wally helpfully explains:

Gov. Walz trying to explain why churches can only have 10 people outdoors, but bars/restaurants can have up to 50… ”I think there is a very strong sense of urgency to figure this thing out around churches.” He says part of it is “predictability” of who will be there.

I’m sure that made more sense in his head before he said/wrote it. Those who support Governor Wally helpfully explain (this from a Star-Tribune article):

We support the cautious, science-driven, and health-focused approach that the governor has followed for the reopening of houses of worship,

A commenter from the Shot In the Dark blog helpfully reminds us:

Science is testable, observable, and repeatable. You need all three; two out of three is just talking points, not science.

Show your work, Governor.

In case you forgot or didn’t know because you went to a public school.

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Hindsight

CNN reported that

If the US began social distancing a week earlier than it did, it could’ve prevented at least 36,000 coronavirus deaths, new research shows.

If the US locked down two weeks earlier, it could’ve prevented 84% of deaths and 82% of cases, the research shows.

To which Scott Adams responded

BREAKING: Everything that is good should have happened sooner thanks to the miracle of hindsight plus selective forgetting of context.

Someone else mentions that

You know what would have saved LOTS of lives, and DIDN’T require a time machine? Not flooding nursing homes with virus patients.

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Epistemic Viciousness

It all started with one of those suggested videos from YouTube (you know, the ones over on the right). I don’t know why, but for some reason this video, “Why Martial Arts Are Suddenly Being Exposed as Fake” was suggested. And, yes, it is/was pretty interesting (and the YouTube channel behind it, Thoughty2, also looks interesting). I don’t really have that much interest in martial arts (and I have even less now), but during the video Gillian Russell, a professor of philosophy, was mentioned and a term she came up with, “epistemic viciousness” was introduced. I won’t deny that this term appears to be so cool that wanted to create a blog post about it.

It comes from a paper written by Ms Russell, called (unsurprisingly in this context) Epistemic Viciousness in the Martial Arts. In the abstract, she writes,

Though the word ‘viciousness’ normally suggests deliberate cruelty and violence, I will be using it here with the more old-fashioned meaning, possessing of vices. Vices (such as avarice, alcoholism and nail-biting) are common, and most of us struggle with a few, but ‘epistemic’ means ‘having to do with knowledge and the justification of belief’ and so epistemic viciousness is the possession of vices that make one bad at acquiring true beliefs, or give one a tendency to form false ones.

Ms Russell has a presence on the net that looks interesting in this regard (and perhaps others as well). but I want to return to the video for some words of wisdom in these days of widespread epistemic viciousness.

  1. Never take anything as proven when you haven’t seen evidence of it being proven time and time again
  2. Never trust a master who claims to know everything but never actually backs it up
  3. Always question the beliefs that have been driven into your head by others

… oh, wait, I’ve watched a video by this guy before. Now, I understand how this all came to be.

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More Code Reviews

I referenced the code review of the Imperial College model, but now it’s been revealed (take your pick, from Shot In the Dark or from Powerline) that here in MN, we went our own way. Our model, which was used to justify shutting down the state, was cobbled together over the weekend by a couple of graduate students“.

It occurs to me to wonder if all other countries and/or states have also cobbled together a model themselves as well. Are there multiple “models”? Do any one of them work? Well?

And also, as I feared, this one was done in an academic environment where there is no accountability for being wrong. Or as Thomas Sowell once said, It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.

I have come to the conclusion that the woman who did the Ferguson code review was extremely smart, and especially when she concluded that

I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves.

You would do well to read this post from Powerline, which delineates and discusses the actual statistics as of May 16 in MN versus the predicted.

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