Four Headlines About the Pandemic

As compiled by Instapundit. Note these are news reports (linked to in the post), not opinion pieces.

GOOD NEWS: UPMC doctor sees too much focus on rising COVID-19 cases, too little on declining severity and hospitalizations.

Related: Hospital patients four times less likely to die now than they were in April, Oxford study finds.

Related: Heather Mac Donald: Where Are The Deaths? “In May, Georgia was the main target of expert contempt for its allegedly premature reopening. Since then, the media have gone silent, due to the state’s truly discouraging downward daily death toll from a high of 119 on April 7, long before the reopenings, to 10 on June 24. . . . There are no crises in hospital capacity anywhere in the country. Nursing homes, meat-packing plants, and prisons remain the main sources of new infections.”

I want to note especially the fourth headline

Getting Realistic About The Coronavirus Death Rate.

Nearly all the studies find between 10 and 100 times the number of total infections as reported infections, with the average somewhere around 20 to 25 times.

In other words, while the CDC reports 2.34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. (CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2.34 million.)

Thus, the death rate, which would be 5.2 percent based on that 2.34 million figure, is actually more like one-20th as high — or 0.26 percent.

Mr Hinderaker from Powerline was discussing this a couple of days ago in this post.

When the dust settles, the Wuhan flu will in all likelihood have a fatality rate of less than 0.2%. This compares with an average seasonal flu rate of around 0.1%.

There is much more there including a discussion of the probable and possibly intentional over-counting of deaths due to Kung flu. The follow-up to the sentence above is

Actually, the world has gotten off lucky: the virus that the Chinese Communist Party unleashed on the rest of us was a mild one. The next pandemic could easily involve a virus that is ten times as lethal, or even, possibly, 100 times as lethal. What will we do then? Our crazed reaction to COVID-19 does not inspire confidence that we would be able to deal rationally with a truly lethal virus.

Indeed.

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