I referenced the code review of the Imperial College model, but now it’s been revealed (take your pick, from Shot In the Dark or from Powerline) that here in MN, we went our own way. Our model, which was used to justify shutting down the state, was cobbled together over the weekend by a couple of graduate students“.
It occurs to me to wonder if all other countries and/or states have also cobbled together a model themselves as well. Are there multiple “models”? Do any one of them work? Well?
And also, as I feared, this one was done in an academic environment where there is no accountability for being wrong. Or as Thomas Sowell once said, It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.
I have come to the conclusion that the woman who did the Ferguson code review was extremely smart, and especially when she concluded that
I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves.
You would do well to read this post from Powerline, which delineates and discusses the actual statistics as of May 16 in MN versus the predicted.